Sunday, March 10, 2024

The Illusion of Confidence

 “You are but mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes." ~ James 4:14

The following is a true story.

On January 6, 1995, a large, middle-aged man moseyed into a Melon Bank near Pittsburg. He strolled up to the teller and, in broad daylight, brandished a semiautomatic pistol and demanded money. He wore nothing to conceal his identity, even smiling cheerfully at surveillance cameras before exiting the bank.

But there’s more! With the newly heisted $5,200 in his pocket, the thief got in his car, went down the road, and held up ANOTHER bank in an equally shameless manner. After the news media flooded the airwaves with the banks’ security footage, police identified him immediately.

Police arrested a shocked McArthur Wheeler. When shown the surveillance tapes, Wheeler stared in disbelief. “But I wore the (lemon) juice,” he mumbled. Huh?

He acted boldly because knew that lemon juice is sometimes used as invisible ink. Knowing just that little piece of info, Wheeler rubbed lemon juice all over his face before entering the bank believing it would render him undistinguishable from videotape cameras.

Police concluded that Wheeler wasn’t crazy or on drugs - just incredibly misinformed. For his botched efforts he received a 24-year sentence.

After extensive research, psychologists at Cornell University coined a name for the cognitive bias to inflate self-assessment. The “Dunning-Kruger effect,” describes how people inaccurately assess their abilities as being much greater than they are.

Before we poke fun at Wheeler and his misguided faith in the power of citrus, it’s harder to admit that we too succumb to the Dunning-Kruger effect in our own lives.

As a Dad and husband, I’m often guilty of refusing to ask for directions while getting us hopelessly lost. What self-respecting man doesn’t insist he can complete a basic home repair only before chaos (and property damage) ensue? Once teens obtain their driver’s license, research says they consider themselves good drivers despite their car’s telltale signs of scratches and dents.

But nowhere does the Dunning-Kruger effect become more apparent than the arrogance with which we plan the future. According to James (above), human life is like “mist”- a fleeting kind of thing. He spent most of his chapter warning about the wisdom of the world and selfish ambition.

What James is driving at is that we should recognize our arrogance in believing that we are the masters of our own fate. Our lives are temporary and fragile. We can't predict or control the future. We truly have no idea what will happen tomorrow.

So be humble and take a long hard look in the mirror. If you’re going to be bold about anything, be bold about doing the things Jesus taught us are good. And for the love of all that’s holy, when lost, use your GPS… or better yet, ask somebody for directions.

Holy Father, when I look into the future and see my weakness(es), help me to trust You. May I glorify You in my weakness, looking away from myself and to the wonders of Your amazing love through Christ. Amen